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Δευτέρα 1 Απριλίου 2013

Nike+ FuelBand and Google Glass: what next for the 'quantified self'?

We're only just at the beginning of the 'quantified self' movement, which tracks movement, diet and other issues using gadgets
Nike+ FuelBand: reportedly sold out within four hours of its launch
The quantified self movement – the idea that tracking metrics about yourself can lead to self-improvement – appears to be gathering steam. With products such as the FitBit One, Jawbone Up and Nike+ FuelBand boasting impressive sales numbers (the FuelBand reportedly sold out within four hours of its launch), it seems that self-tracking is finding traction and on the way to becoming an ubiquitous feature of daily life.

But how exactly can it break into the mainstream, and where does the future of the movement lie? Here are the five key areas where I see the quantified self going next.

App collaboration

If you self-track multiple different metrics about yourself, chances are you're using a different device or app to track each one. I currently use the ElectricSleep app (Android-only) to track my sleep, a Withings scale to track my weight, a Nike+ FuelBand to track my steps and football sessions, Runkeeper to track the runs I go for, and MyFitnessPal to track my food consumption, as well as a few others.

This isn't ideal for a number of reasons. Firstly, it's difficult to view and evaluate all of the different tracked stats, as each service has a separate dashboard. It's difficult for me to find correlations between the different metrics – if I wanted to see the effect that my food consumption had on my weight over a period of time, I'd have to bring two different dashboards up and compare them manually.

There are a couple of trends that will help with these problems. The first of these is multipurpose devices. Two of the leading step-tracking manufacturers, FitBit and Jawbone, both recently announced new products that allow you to track food consumption and sleep besides their traditional step-tracking functionality. Tracking additional metrics does not necessarily require the devices to require additional sensors (in fact, a huge variety of metrics can be tracked from the sensors in your smartphone – you just need the software to hook into them and do the tracking), so this is likely something we will see much more of in the future.

Another trend that is starting to emerge is centralised QS [quantified self] dashboards. Over recent months there have been a number of entrants into this market, including TicTrac, whose value lies in solving the exact kinds of problems I mentioned above. By pulling in the data from a variety of external sources, TicTrac lets you view, compare and visualise your data in one place. It's early days for these products, but they'll undoubtedly provide huge benefits for the self-tracker.

Real-time health tracking

There are a number of recently established services offer consumers comprehensive health diagnoses, allowing for extremely personalised recommendations. In the US, a service called WellnessFX can provide more than 20 actionable metrics about your current state of health, including cholesterol and inflammation levels, from a single blood sample.

Another, 23andme, offers a "Personal Genome Service", which provides a detailed overview of your genetic profile, including what your global origins and ancestral lineages are, and specific disease risks and drug sensitivities. [Editor's note: the amount and precision of the detail that can be inferred from a genetic profile such as 23andme's is still the subject of a lot of debate. As scientists say, genes aren't destiny.]

This is a fast-growing trend, as this previously advanced and expensive technology can now be offered in a convenient manner at consumer prices.

However, the issue with this kind of service is that it only provides a snapshot in time. To track improvements over time, you would have to take multiple tests, typically months apart. Imagine making a change to your website and having to wait six months for the analytics data to show you what effect it had – the situation is inherently inefficient.

This particular sector of the quantified self will see solutions to this problem: people will be able to track health metrics in something closer to real time.

Evolution of game mechanics

Perhaps the most effective aspect of the quantified self movement thus far has been the way that game mechanics have been integrated into fitness tracking. We are all inherently competitive and this has been played upon superbly well by most of the leading fitness apps, where competing with friends encourages us to stick to a diet, or keep going to the gym beyond January. FitBit claims that its users average 43% more steps each day.

Given this, apps and devices will expand upon that success by harnessing our competitive nature in new and interesting ways. Recently there have been a number of interesting innovations, including "Zombies, Run!", a smartphone app that turns your morning run into a zombie chase scenario. This type of gamification brings out two additional motivators – fun and addiction – and when coupled with the end result (users become fitter and healthier) is very attractive.

The success of Zombies, Run!, originally a Kickstarter project which is now nearing the release of its second version, won't have gone unnoticed. Expect game mechanics within fitness tracking apps to become increasingly sophisticated.

Fix the food problem

Arguably the most important metric to self-track of them all is food consumption, but this is currently fraught with problems. You can't passively track your food consumption, accuracy is inherently difficult, and there are large gaps in the nutritional information available – for example, few independent restaurants provide calorific information alongside their menu.

You get your food at a variety of sources – including groceries, restaurants and event catering – which makes it difficult to imagine a single solution to the problem. The QS movement is unlikely to reach its full potential until it is able to reduce these barriers to accurate food tracking.

However, improvements are being made in this area, and we should see this trend continue and even gather pace. In the US, Obamacare now requires all restaurants with 20 or more locations to publish detailed nutritional information, and the EU is beginning to catch up after recently agreeing to new nutritional labelling legislation.

These, coupled with a growing general demand from people for more nutritional information, should enable a more passive food tracking solution in the not-too-distant future; something the QS movement desperately needs.

Google Glass

It's early days for Google Glass, the wearable computer that is scheduled to launch later this year, but the signs are there that it will have a major impact on the future of technology – some are already arguing that it may even usher in the start of a new post-smartphone era. What is certainly true is that it has the potential to be a game changer for the quantified self.

Two things are particularly interesting about its potential impact. It hugely increases the possibilities around what can be tracked. Imagine if it were able to track your social interactions, who you spend time with and how that affects your productivity and mood.

There are obvious and important privacy concerns in terms of the data that could be collected, but app developers will have a platform that does not restrict them to the limitations of the smartphone; they will be building on top of real-time, real-world information, and the possibilities there seem endless.

It also has the potential to make tracking significantly easier and more accurate. For those tracking their food consumption, instead of having to manually enter the ingredients for a homemade recipe, imagine being able to log the ingredients by voice whilst you were actually cooking. And imagine being able to take a photo of your dish at a restaurant, say the name of the dish, and have that look up relevant nutritional information (adjusted for the portion size) found in the photo.

We don't know exactly what the future will look like with Google Glass, and it is unclear whether it will ever become mainstream itself, but it certainly has the potential to make a huge positive impact in terms of the quantified self.

Chris Hollindale is the co-founder & CTO of Hasty, a seed-funded startup with a mission to improve the health of humanity.

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